There are many risk matrices in use in any number of industries – including the Petrochemical Industry, Defence Aviation and even in the national weather forecasts. We have developed a similar risk matrix for personal use when assessing the potential risk from Covid-19.
A likelihood score for the general public may be more simply determined from the calculation shown below:
Likelihood Score = Local Infection Rate (per 100,000) x Size of Contact Proximity Bubble
Mask factor of 5 (if used)
It must be noted that the likelihood value is not an absolute likelihood, rather it is an indicative value that is easy to determine.
A severity score may be simply determined from a summation calculation shown below:
Severity Score = Age + BMI + Health condition factors
Where age is the individual’s actual age; BMI is the individual’s BMI value; and the health condition factor is a numerical increase score of 20 based on the individual already having a severe health condition, and a further increase score of 20 if the individual is a smoker. These factors have been shown to be strong positive indicators of increased severity of Covid-19 effects.
More information on these scores is given in our publication on risk assessments here.